Synth reporting
Andrew Baxter
2021-03-26
1 Setting up data
1.1 Under-18 birth rates
Data from Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database was used to calculate birth rates. This was tidied to give Under-18 rates:
Data available to download here.
1.2 Under-20 pregnancy rates
Abortion estimates were added to give Under-20 rates:
Data available to download here.
2 Iterating through year combinations
For each comparison, I iterated through all combinations of years as special predictors to minimise MSPE (whilst prioritising fewest groupings). For example, for the under-18 basic model with years as special predictors:
it_u18_sp <- testSynthIterations(
yrs = 1990:1998,
pred = "rate",
data = synthData_u18_filt[,1:4],
ccodes = u_18_ccodes,
n = 4,
predictors = NULL,
time.optimise = 1985:1998
) %>%
arrange(groups, mspe)3 All countries, no additional predictors
3.1 Model 1: Under-18 birth rates
3.1.1 All Countries graph
3.1.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -3,744 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 0.0923, (an average error of 0.304) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 77.2% of the variance (R2 = 0.772).
3.1.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Scotland | 0.672 |
| 20 | Portugal | 0.295 |
| 23 | United States of America | 0.016 |
| 30 | New Zealand | 0.012 |
| 14 | Iceland | 0.001 |
| 22 | Sweden | 0.001 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 4 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 5 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 6 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 8 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 9 | France | 0.000 |
| 15 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 17 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 18 | Norway | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.01 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.333 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.295 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.362 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.275 | 10.415 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 14.952 | 9.629 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.561 | 9.660 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 16.728 | 9.257 |
3.1.4 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: Switzerland, Scotland, Iceland, United States of America, New Zealand
View this live online.
## # A tibble: 16 x 3
## Country ratio rank
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 Switzerland 0.888 1
## 2 Scotland 1.39 2
## 3 England and Wales 1.86 3
## 4 United States of America 2.97 4
## 5 Italy 3.96 5
## 6 Germany 6.02 6
## 7 Finland 6.54 7
## 8 Sweden 8.46 8
## 9 Denmark 9.01 9
## 10 Iceland 9.73 10
## 11 Netherlands 12.7 11
## 12 New Zealand 17.7 12
## 13 Portugal 21.5 13
## 14 Norway 49.9 14
## 15 Spain 118. 15
## 16 France 458. 16In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
3.2 Model 2: Under-20 pregnancy rates
3.2.1 All Countries graph
3.2.2 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 152,471 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 4.27, (an average error of 2.07) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 52.1% of the variance (R2 = 0.521).
3.2.3 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Scotland | 0.639 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.227 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.134 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.000 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.152 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.578 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.271 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 65.337 | 35.661 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.055 | 32.224 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 61.259 | 30.895 |
3.2.4 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: United States of America
View this live online.
In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 11 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
4 Filtered to remove Scotland, no additional predictors
4.1 Model 3: Under-18 birth rates
4.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of -17,765 births (to an average population of 995,340 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 0.616, (an average error of 0.785) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 1% of the variance (R2 = 0.01).
4.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Portugal | 0.807 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.193 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.206 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.156 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.318 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.32 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.587 | 9.928 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 15.963 | 9.210 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.782 | 9.155 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 15.803 | 8.607 |
4.1.3 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: New Zealand, United States of America
View this live online.
## # A tibble: 16 x 3
## Country ratio rank
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 Switzerland 0.888 1
## 2 Scotland 1.39 2
## 3 England and Wales 2.92 3
## 4 United States of America 2.97 4
## 5 Italy 3.96 5
## 6 Germany 6.02 6
## 7 Finland 6.54 7
## 8 Sweden 8.46 8
## 9 Denmark 9.01 9
## 10 Iceland 9.73 10
## 11 Netherlands 12.7 11
## 12 New Zealand 17.7 12
## 13 Portugal 21.5 13
## 14 Norway 49.9 14
## 15 Spain 118. 15
## 16 France 458. 16In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 14 out of 16 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
4.2 Model 4: Under-20 pregnancy rates
4.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
Over the period 1999 to 2013, England and Wales saw a difference of 250,707 pregnancies (to an average population of 1,668,190 women).
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 6.03, (an average error of 2.46) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 34.7% of the variance (R2 = 0.347).
4.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Iceland | 0.359 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.353 |
| 20 | New Zealand | 0.288 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.309 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.498 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.193 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 67.005 | 34.180 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.152 | 30.590 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 60.236 | 28.987 |
4.2.3 Placebo testing by country and time
## Countries removed: United States of America
View this live online.
## # A tibble: 15 x 3
## Country ratio rank
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 United States of America 0.0710 1
## 2 Iceland 5.28 2
## 3 Norway 5.94 3
## 4 Denmark 6.39 4
## 5 Finland 10.3 5
## 6 New Zealand 12.2 6
## 7 England and Wales 17.4 7
## 8 Italy 33.6 8
## 9 Netherlands 34.5 9
## 10 Switzerland 35.1 10
## 11 Sweden 61.9 11
## 12 Portugal 78.8 12
## 13 Germany 93.6 13
## 14 France 155. 14
## 15 Spain 659. 15In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 9 out of 15 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
View this live online.
5 Adding all predictors
5.1 Model 5: Under-18 birth rates
5.1.1 England vs Synthetic Control
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 1.49, (an average error of 1.22) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 5.3% of the variance (R2 = 0.053).
5.1.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Portugal | 0.582 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.245 |
| 22 | United States of America | 0.172 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.165 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.049 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.12 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0.016 |
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.01 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.008 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.031 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0.002 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0.05 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.522 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.025 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 16.952 | 8.005 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 16.082 | 7.329 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 15.653 | 7.099 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 15.057 | 6.703 |
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 52.080 | 32.961 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 47.070 | 29.104 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 44.576 | 27.083 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 19029.179 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 29252.608 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 33941.909 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 32879.360 | 52420.115 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.964 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 6.717 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 6.643 | 5.691 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 1.854 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 4.949 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 14.411 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 91.103 | 93.736 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 63.137 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 63.573 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 64.070 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 69.134 | 77.582 |
5.1.3 Placebo testing by country
## Countries removed: United States of America
View this live online.
## # A tibble: 14 x 3
## Country ratio rank
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 United States of America 0.208 1
## 2 Switzerland 0.590 2
## 3 England and Wales 1.56 3
## 4 Denmark 1.96 4
## 5 Italy 2.18 5
## 6 Sweden 2.36 6
## 7 Norway 2.69 7
## 8 Iceland 3.17 8
## 9 Finland 3.41 9
## 10 Netherlands 3.56 10
## 11 Portugal 10.9 11
## 12 France 10.9 12
## 13 Spain 42.1 13
## 14 Germany 55.4 14In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 12 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
5.2 Model 6: Under-20 pregnancy rates
5.2.1 England vs Synthetic Control
The MSPE across the pre-intervention period was 11.6, (an average error of 3.41) and the synthetic predictor was able to account for 22.8% of the variance (R2 = 0.228).
5.2.2 Weights and balance
| Country | Weight | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | United States of America | 0.424 |
| 12 | Iceland | 0.420 |
| 19 | Portugal | 0.156 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 0.000 |
| 3 | Germany | 0.000 |
| 4 | Denmark | 0.000 |
| 5 | Spain | 0.000 |
| 7 | Finland | 0.000 |
| 8 | France | 0.000 |
| 13 | Italy | 0.000 |
| 15 | Netherlands | 0.000 |
| 16 | Norway | 0.000 |
| 21 | Sweden | 0.000 |
| v.weights | |
|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 0.202 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 0.179 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 0.345 |
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 0.011 |
| special.rate.1994 | 0.016 |
| special.rate.1995 | 0.017 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 0 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 0.001 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 0.002 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 0.009 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 0.002 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 0 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 0 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 0.028 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 0.024 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 0.006 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 0.011 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 0.038 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 0.036 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 0.036 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 0.034 |
| Treated | Synthetic | Sample Mean | |
|---|---|---|---|
| special.pRate.1990 | 68.000 | 68.847 | 32.961 |
| special.pRate.1991.1995 | 60.620 | 62.543 | 29.104 |
| special.pRate.1996.1998 | 63.633 | 58.508 | 27.083 |
| special.rate.1990.1993 | 16.214 | 23.982 | 8.005 |
| special.rate.1994 | 15.078 | 22.883 | 7.329 |
| special.rate.1995 | 15.285 | 22.538 | 7.099 |
| special.rate.1996.1998 | 16.836 | 20.387 | 6.703 |
| special.MobilePhones.1990.1992 | 2.256 | 3.421 | 2.778 |
| special.MobilePhones.1993.1995 | 6.881 | 7.980 | 7.214 |
| special.MobilePhones.1996.1997 | 13.808 | 18.113 | 18.310 |
| special.MobilePhones.1998.2013 | 98.113 | 83.549 | 93.736 |
| special.edu_spend.1995.1998 | 4.223 | 5.853 | 5.616 |
| special.edu_spend.1999.2007 | 5.296 | 6.689 | 5.627 |
| special.edu_spend.2008.2013 | 5.794 | 6.780 | 5.691 |
| special.GDPperCap.1990.2003 | 24800.333 | 27053.641 | 26870.008 |
| special.GDPperCap.2004 | 39983.985 | 40327.351 | 39108.220 |
| special.GDPperCap.2005.2010 | 43340.344 | 45726.029 | 47573.339 |
| special.GDPperCap.2011.2013 | 41975.732 | 44598.967 | 52420.115 |
| special.UrbanPop.1990 | 78.140 | 77.525 | 74.238 |
| special.UrbanPop.1991 | 78.112 | 77.857 | 74.478 |
| special.UrbanPop.1992 | 78.172 | 78.204 | 74.734 |
| special.UrbanPop.1993.2013 | 79.690 | 81.341 | 77.582 |
5.2.3 Placebo testing by country
## Countries removed: United States of America
View this live online.
## # A tibble: 14 x 3
## Country ratio rank
## <chr> <dbl> <int>
## 1 United States of America 0.275 1
## 2 Iceland 0.959 2
## 3 Sweden 2.65 3
## 4 Norway 3.75 4
## 5 Denmark 4.04 5
## 6 Finland 7.80 6
## 7 England and Wales 18.7 7
## 8 Germany 20.7 8
## 9 Netherlands 24.9 9
## 10 Switzerland 33.2 10
## 11 Portugal 48.0 11
## 12 Italy 62.8 12
## 13 France 90.2 13
## 14 Spain 92.6 14In placebo-country tests, England and Wales ranked 8 out of 14 countries by pre/post-MSPE ratio.
